IMD Faces Criticism Over Interpretation of Weather Data as Forecasts Falter

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has come under scrutiny for inaccurate weather forecasts, prompting experts to highlight a critical issue – the interpretation of data by weather forecasters.

On January 7, IMD issued a three-day forecast warning of "moderate rainfall across central and northwest India" on January 8 and 9. An orange alert was issued for several states, including Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Rajasthan. However, January 8 and 9 passed with minimal rain, leading to concerns about the accuracy of IMD's forecasts. Subsequently, the forecast was adjusted to "a possibility of isolated showers."

According to experts, the problem does not lie with the technology or models used by IMD but rather with the interpretation of data by weather forecasters.

A senior weather department official defended the forecasts, attributing the discrepancy to a developing cyclonic circulation over the region at the time of the warning. The official stressed that such error margins are common even among the best forecasters.

This incident follows a similar one last month when IMD failed to predict "extremely heavy" rainfall in Tamil Nadu, resulting in casualties. State officials emphasized the importance of accurate warnings for better preparedness.

IMD Director General M Mohapatra acknowledged the challenges in weather prediction, stating that no weather agency can be accurate all the time. He highlighted the ongoing efforts to improve forecasts, including the development of a high-density meso network and high-resolution modeling framework for major cities.

However, former Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, M Rajeevan, pointed out that while IMD's models are on par with those used in the US, UK, and Japan, the interpretation of data and satellite images remains a crucial aspect where IMD lags. Rajeevan emphasized the need for improved interpretation skills, especially for long-range, seasonal forecasts.

Mahesh Palawat, Vice-President (Meteorology and Climate Change) at private forecaster Skymet, echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the importance of training weather forecasters alongside technological improvements.

While an IMD official acknowledged the challenges posed by India's tropical climate and the impact of climate change on forecasting, the need for continuous improvement was emphasized. Despite advancements in technology and equipment, the persistent issue lies in the interpretation of vast and complex weather data, urging authorities to prioritize enhanced training for weathermen to ensure more accurate forecasts in the future.