Congress Faces Electoral Challenges in North India After Sunday's Results

In the aftermath of Sunday's election results, the Congress party finds itself with 439 MLAs out of 1,320 in 10 states where it directly competes with the BJP. Despite securing a victory in resource-rich Telangana, the Congress faced setbacks in north India, failing to unseat the Bharatiya Janata Party in Madhya Pradesh and losing power in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Analysts emphasize that the electoral losses highlight a broader challenge for the largest Opposition party: its struggle to enhance its performance against the BJP in regions crucial for its electoral prospects.

The Congress, while holding key states like Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana, is grappling with a diminishing presence in north India. A senior leader from an Opposition party, speaking anonymously, remarked, "The biggest problem for the Opposition is that the Congress is not able to grow in states where it faces the BJP. In other areas, it plays a second fiddle to strong regional parties." The loss in the Hindi heartland has left the Congress in power only in Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana, fueling speculation that the party is evolving into a predominantly southern Indian regional force.

Acknowledging this challenge, a Congress leader, requesting anonymity, stated, "Our focus has remained on improving our strike rate in north India. Only if we can expand our presence in the north, do we have a better chance of taking on the BJP nationally." Following Sunday's results, the Congress now holds 439 MLAs out of 1,320 in states such as Assam, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Rajasthan where it directly competes with the BJP. In the Lok Sabha, Kerala and Punjab account for 30% of Congress seats, with the party having just seven Lower House seats from the aforementioned 10 states.

While the Congress appeared to be on the path to revival between November last year and May, the recent results mark a setback just six months before the crucial Lok Sabha polls. A Congress leader, who chose to remain anonymous, acknowledged, "The setback is even bigger as it comes just six months before the Lok Sabha polls and the window for course correction is very small."

Highlighting the party's strategic concerns, a senior strategist in the Congress noted, "Our larger problem is about positioning ourselves in north India. We desperately want our strike rate against the BJP to improve. In other states, we have to depend on regional parties. In those states, such as Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, or Tamil Nadu, we are marginal players. It is in north India, where we should have improved but we couldn't."

Sanjay Kumar of CSDS emphasized the Congress's historic challenge, stating, "We have always been talking about the inability of the Congress to face the BJP in a direct contest. In a large number of north Indian states, the Congress has tags attached to it of appeasing the Muslims or being a dynasty party. Also, in north Indian states, Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys unmatched popularity. Outside the north, in many states, regional identities are much stronger. But in the north, the BJP’s general plank of national pride, nationalism, and Hindutva have a greater appeal, and the Congress is not able to match that national pride and Hinduism."